Predictions for 2012

It’s January 1, 2012, and it’s time for our annual look at the future.  Since we got our score up to 80% this year, we are feeling pretty good about our chances.  So, here is what we think could happen in 2012, in our purely unscientific, objective opinion.

1. The Republicans wont know who their 2012 presidential candidate is until shortly before the RNC convention in Florida, as primary candidates trade leadership positions in the polls and at least four candidates win at least one state’s caucuses or primary election. This will have the side effect of weakening the Republican candidate’s chances in the general election and will give president Obama a large lead going into the general election cycle.
2. The situation on the ground in Iran will destabilize to the point where the US has to get involved in stabilizing control of Iran’s nuclear arsenal.
3. Similarly, in Pakistan, the increasing turmoil will escalate as military and political leaders struggle for power.  US-Pakistani relations will deteriorate and the US will be forced to reevaluate its relationship with Pakistan and its support for Pakistani leadership.
4. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, will continue to stand out as a capable and respected leader and a commanding presence in US international relations, causing even more Democrats to wonder why she wasn’t their candidate in 2008, and calling for her to replace vice president Biden as president Obama’s running mate in the 2012 general election, or better yet, to challenge the president in a Democratic primary.
5. Congress will continue to have abysmally low approval ratings as they engage in another partisan fight about the debt ceiling, payroll taxes, and health care, rather than focusing on coming together to make progress on ways to balance the budget, address the state of education, and solve immigration issues.
6.  US troops will continue to leave Iraq, but will deploy to new areas of the destabilizing Middle East.
7. Redistricting resulting from the 2010 Census will inure to the benefit of the Democrats who will pick up seats in districts previously drawn to favor Republicans.
8. Social media-driven movements, much like the Arab Spring, will continue to drive policy, influence opinion, and impact consumer spending.
9. The unemployment rate will continue to decline slightly.
10.  And, charitable giving will start to make a slight come back as some unemployed Americans go back to work.
There are our ten 2012 predictions.  As always, we encourage you to stay positive, work hard, and develop your skill on par with your talent.
Happy New Year from the Rudy Syndrome!

02 January 2012
Special Editor’s update:
Three additional predictions, by special request of one of our favorite readers, @Zimmy21.
1. Super Bowl.  We’ll go with an upset in the NFC with the 49ers beating the Packers in the Conference Championship.  The AFC will go to the Patriots, as expected.  So, the Super Bowl will pit the perennially outstanding Patriots against the newly reinvigorated 49ers.  
Results: Pats over Niners.  Spread = 7.
2. Tebow.  The Broncos will beat the the Steelers in a down-to-the wire AFC Wild Card Game (sorry @horsestoharleys), but the Patriots will easily handle Tebow, despite Divine intervention, in the Divisional Playoffs.  Tebow will go on to win at least ten games as the Broncos’ starter in the 2012 season.
3. Democratic pick-ups.  The current split in the US House is 242 (R) to 192 (D).  After redistricting, the Rs will keep the majority, but the Ds will pick up somewhere around 15 seats, making the R majority much narrower.  This, of course, has the unfortunate side effect of making an already unproductive Congress even more evenly split, more partisan, and less likely to get anything significant done.

5 thoughts on “Predictions for 2012”

  1. As always, interesting Thoughts @AttyJones. Can you put a target on some of these predictions like the unemployment number you expect by 12/31/12 and the number of seats you see the Dems picking up at election time? I will give you some latitude when grading next year. How about a SuperBowl winner or at least who will be playing? Tebow?

    Thank you,

    @Zimmy21

  2. Dean Nima-

    We try not to make predictions on topics where we have a hoped-for outcome.  Seems like bad karma.  But, yes, we do hope for another Yankees World Series title.
    Keep the dream alive,
    AttyJones
  3. Dear @Zimmy21-

    We have appended a few additional thoughts, just for you.  But, we will conveniently leave those out of the 2012 score card as we do not have sufficient expertise to predict sports winners and losers.
    Bring on steak night,
    AttyJones

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